Scotland’s Stupidest Elections

Tory Airdrie Central candidate Trevor Douglas- campaigning anywhere but Airdrie.

It’s that time again, when the elections which have the most effect on your day to day living are voted on by an underwhelming amount of the electorate. At the last local authority election in 2017 only 46% of the electorate voted across Scotland. In Airdrie Central the turnout was a miserable 39%, and saw the election of Tory councillor Trevor Douglas on a mere 793 First Preference (FP) votes who has turned out to be Airdrie’s version of the invisible man: no mean feat. In this election Mr Douglas hasn’t been seen locally, although he has been pictured campaigning closer to home, in Motherwell.

At the time of writing, only two days before polling opens, I’ve received no SNP leaflets, a local leaflet for Jim Logue and Chris Costello, a leaflet for local Alba candidate Julie Marshall, and a generic “Stop the SNP” leaflet from the Tories.

In the last election Jim Logue ran with Michael McBride as his second, and while Mr Logue picked up 1336 FP votes, Mr McBride picked up a paltry 341 votes, which paved the way for Councillor Douglas to take his seat, and his £18,000 annual paycheck. His total outlay on election expenses? Wait for it… £67.64.

Yes, Scottish democracy really is that cheap.

The 2017 election in North Lanarkshire saw the SNP shade it in terms of seats won, but they were unable to form an administration. Labour were able to do so however, and joined with the Tories to form a Unionist coalition. Given the calibre of many of the SNP councillors I view this as a lucky escape anyway, as many were there not on merit or ability, and would have harmed the SNP and by extension the independence movement. Incidentally the Tories, who claim to be the best placed party to beat the SNP based on by-election results lost every by-election in North Lanarkshire between 2017 and today – as did the SNP.

There has been some effort by shady unionist groups to get unionists in Airdrie to vote Tory as their first preference, despite Labour fielding two hardline Orange Order candidates, and this could throw up some interesting results if voters vote on constitutional lines.

Of course this isn’t a constitutional election. It’s about who delivers local services, yet you wouldn’t think it. All the main parties appear to be campaigning for or against independence, when in reality it’s about bins, roads, education, local health services, housing – it’s about our communities. In Glasgow Anas Sarwar is promising an end to the additional uplift fees for rubbish due to Glasgow’s rat problem. Yet in Labour run North Lanarkshire there’s no such undertaking – despite OUR streets being awash with rubbish and NLC having to scrap pest control fees due to rat infestation! They must think we are mugs – and to a great extent we are because we accept this garbage!

At the 2017 election the SNP ran a highly inept campaign which delivered two ineffective councillors. So bad was their campaign that the incumbent David Stocks came second to his own running partner who was No2 on their election literature! Having received no SNP material I am in the dark as to the qualities of their new candidates – as will be the case for most people in the area.

Local elections should be about local issues, and should be fought on local, not national lines. North Lanarkshire Council, like most other Scottish local authorities is too big and too remote from the people it represents. The present system needs scrapped and we should return to smaller local councils, drawn from the communities, responsible to the people who they see on the street and live alongside. If people are stupid enough to vote for paper candidates who aren’t from or interested in their community then frankly they deserve the inept and out of touch local government they get.

What I feel the system should be has no bearing on the reality of the situation. In Airdrie Central we have 6 candidates, 2 Labour, 2 SNP, 1 Alba and 1 Tory, and they are what matters on Thursday. On the basis of traditional low turnout, misunderstanding of the ranking system, and voting on national rather than local issues, I think that Thursday’s outcome could see a surprise. Whether that is the invisible Tory creeping in on the Orange Order vote, or the Alba candidate taking a seat at the expense of either Labour’s relatively unknown 2nd candidate or either one of the SNP’s unknown candidates I do not know. With most of the SNP’s experienced activists switching to Alba there’s a chance that they might just make it.

With all that in mind, remember to vote until you boak, and rank the Tory last. On Thursday, let’s make Tories history.

Groundhog Day and the Girl Who Cried Wolf

Scottish politics seems to exist in a state of perpetual Groundhog Day. Last week Henry McLeish again emerged to opine that what Scottish Labour needed to turn its fortunes around was, yes, federalism. Cue weary laughter. Surely he must have realised by now that his plan is a non starter. Probably not. See you again in a few weeks Henry…

Not to be outdone Nicola Sturgeon then rolled out for third time in as many years the ‘we will introduce legislation for a second independence referendum’ line, which has left many within the grassroots Independence movement distinctly underwhelmed. Groundhog Day comes around so quickly again these day.

Nicola Sturgeon is now gaining has gained the reputation among the grassroots as the girl who cried wolf, and I for one won’t be getting excited. I’m seriously concerned that the SNP’s hierarchy’s commitment to independence is becoming a bit like Labour’s commitment to scrapping the House of Lords – dusted off, wheeled out for elections and conferences then packed away until it’s needed again. The SNP would be minded to remember that the Labour Party in Scotland went from dominating public life and politics to polling at 12% and crawling home on the list system.  Other pro-independence parties are forming and they may be the future beneficiaries if the SNP fails to deliver this time.

Airdrie and Shotts Result 2019- The Outcome

From Sky NewsThe night of the 12th December into the 13th was a long and eventful one. As I was following the Scottish coverage I missed just how many big names went in our southern neighbours electoral battlefields. It was a night of big surprises, but in other ways delivered just what I expected.

What I expected was a Tory majority and that was exactly what the outcome was. Boris Johnson’s “Get Brexit Done” message was simple and repetitive and no attention was paid by many to the devil in the detail.

Corbynism is now dead and gone and we can “look forward” to another two or three Conservative governments before we get any kind of reprieve. Anyone who still believes that another Labour government is just round the corner really does need their head examined.

The SNP did exceptionally well in Scotland, better than I had expected to be honest. I was delighted to see Jo Swinson gone, and it will be interesting to see how much money the Lib-Dems threw at that seat.

Locally the SNP also did better than I expected. In Coatbridge Hugh “Two-Jobs” Gaffney became merely Hugh Gaffney as Stevie Bonnar took the seat back for the SNP, despite the ongoing infighting in the branch. In Airdrie the SNP’s Neil Gray saw off the challenge of Helen McFarlane of the Labour Party, and did so comfortably. Early in the campaign I had stated that the SNP lost around 10,00 votes between 2015-2017 and this was partially due to their failure to motivate those who had previously supported them to get out and vote.  That’s not a mistake that was repeated this time, with Nicola Sturgeon making a number of high profile references to Indyref 2020. This wasn’t really repeated in local leafleting though and I thought this may be a weakness. It wasn’t perceived as such.

There was also much effort on social media at organising and directing tactical voting. Former Labour MP and now Scotland in Union Chief Executive Pamela Nash was the main proponent of this with her Tactical Voting Advisor being used to advise British Nationalists which way to vote. Such was the volume of chatter that I saw it as likely that if the SNP failed to enthuse it’s lapsed support then the Labour Party would be the beneficiary of those who had stated they were going to “hold their nose and vote Labour (in reference to Jeremy Corbyn’s alleged IRA support).  So what happened?

Firstly, let’s look at turnout. In 2017 Airdrie and Shotts had 64,146 registered voters. In 2019 that had DROPPED to 64,008! That’s not much, but you would expect the registered electorate to rise, not fall. In the great scheme of things it’s not much, but then again it’s not far off Neil Gray’s majority in 2017. Of those registered 39,772 voted in 2019, up on 2017’s 38,002. So, with an extra 1770 voters turning out, how were those votes carved up?

The SNP increased their vote by 3,638.

Labour lost 1,368 votes overall.

The Tories lost 1,802 votes.

The Lib-Dems increased their vote by 617.

The Greens took 685 votes (didn’t stand previously).

Given that it’s unlikely that voters would switch from pro-Indy/Anti-Brexit SNP to anti-Indy/anti-Brexit Lib-Dems, we might see much of the Lib-Dem increase coming from Labour/Tory voters who were against Brexit.

We can probably put much of the remaining Tory loss down to tactical voting for Labour, and this could mean around 1,500 votes went to what they viewed rightly as the SNP’s main challenger.

Which begs the question: what happened to the Labour vote? If we assume that around 1,500 votes were lent by the Tories, then Labour retained around 11,200 votes from 2015, dropping almost 2,900 votes somewhere along the way.  Were those voters simply not energised by Jeremy Corbyn this time round? Did they stay at home and not bother voting at all? Or did they switch to the SNP and Greens? Those are questions which Labour will no doubt be asking, but which the SNP must also ask too. Because they need to know whether their rise in this election came from lapsed supporters or people who switched from their constitutional opponents, and if it’s the latter, have they changed their mind on the constitutional question?

As for Labour, they need to ask the same question and decide where their future lies. At the head of the party is a wounded leadership still resolved to backing the union, but how much of the remaining rank and file are now open to independence?

And what of my predictions? I saw the British Nationalist tactical voting coming and had turnout followed similar lines at 2017 Labour would have comfortably taken the seat. What I didn’t see was the total collapse of the Labour vote which rendered the tactical voting null and void. Time will tell whether they rebuild to former levels or not. I wouldn’t put money on it though.

Misleading Scotland – Dodgy Bar Charts and Alternative Facts

The last election leaflet has now been delivered and there have been some whoppers. At this election across the UK it has been reported that there have been some rather dodgy bar graphs used in the electoral material which take the statistics from the previous elections and present them as, well, something else entirely. So how have we fared in Airdrie & Shotts?

Here’s the Airdrie & Shotts result from 2017.

The SNP took 37.6% of the vote, followed closely by Labour on 37.1%. The Tories increased their vote, but still trailed in around 5,000 votes behind on 23.4%, while the Lib-Dems lost their deposit with a mere 2.1% of votes cast. In the 2019 leaflets issued by all parties both the SNP and Labour decided not to use bar charts. From the SNP’s point of view that’s understandable as such a graphic would show how close they were to being unseated, and might encourage tactical voting against them. As challengers it’s therefore strange that Labour failed to do so, as it would have showed them as strongly placed and at the same time revealed the claims made by the Tories and Lib-Dems as misleading. How so? Here’s how…

Lorraine Nolan Leaflet

The Conservative candidate presented a graph showing them romping ahead of Labour and would indicate to the casual reader that they were in pole position to challenge the SNP. One problem: the graph showed the rise in their vote share, not their actual vote share, and would need around a 70% rise to beat the SNP! That’s right. Seventy. Seven Zero. Top marks for audacity, nil points for accuracy.

William “the ghost” Crossman.

Not to be outdone the Lib Dem candidate William Crossman, who appears to have either been photoshopped onto his leaflet or popped off the train at Airdrie for a selfie and then jumped on the first train back out (has anyone ever seen him?) made the claim that the Lib-Dems are “challenging the SNP across much of Scotland”. By much he means some and that certainly isn’t in Airdrie. In his chart he’s decided to use the results of the 2019 European Election to show how the Lib-Dems increased their vote by almost 7%, which if replicated in this election could see the Lib-Dems increase their vote share from 2.1% to 2.2 and a bit %. Haud me back!

In but a few short hours we’ll see who comes out tops, but if there are awards for brass neck and bullshit the Tories and Lib-Dems would be the clear winners. Congratulations!

For comparison I uploaded all the 2019 electoral material I received to the site electionleaflets.org and you can view them all HERE.

How Low Can They Go?

I really don’t think I could feel any more contempt than I do with anyone making political capital from the deaths of children in the QEU Hospital. The idea of these people rubbing their hands with glee at the news of a child’s death sickens me to the core; and I find it concerning that there is a mole inside the hospital whose first priority appears not to be to the patients, or the families, but the Labour Party. This chain runs like a sewer from the mole to the Labour Party and then onwards to their friends in the print media and the BBC; and no matter how tenuous the link, from there the stories filter into every home and every workplace as one voice, with one message: get the Health Minister. This message is then seized upon by their poisonous Twitterati who add their tuppenceworth before sharing their epidemic of hate.

It’s a tactic which has repeated itself over and over in Scotland since the SNP swept Labour from its fiefdom here, yet it is not a pattern which is repeated in England, either by the parties or the media. It is a truly Scottish phenomenon, but it is one which many of us haven’t succumbed to. The idea that the removal of the current Health Minister will improve things doesn’t add up, especially when the reasons for calling for her head cannot be directly laid at her door. If any deaths were as a direct result of an instruction given by the Minister then I’d have no argument with that line of attack. I’ve had issues with hospitals myself, where I’ve had to raise complaints, but I can clearly see where responsibility lies and these have mainly been with local procedures or with members of staff themselves. Unless I was extraordinarily twisted there is no way I could lay the blame for the bad attitude of an individual within the system at the door of the Health Minister. Yet this is the situation Scotland now finds itself in and a simple comparison with news output, media coverage and political posturing sees none of the same patterns occurring in England, despite there being no shortage of troubling stories emanating from their NHS.

Unfortunately I see no end in sight to this cycle of coverage in Scotland, which is ultimately eroding confidence in our entire health service. Here in Airdrie there is a consultation taking place about the replacement for the Monklands Hospital, and I heard one elderly gentleman comment that “perhaps they will learn to build a hospital where people don’t die”. There isn’t a hospital in the world where that happens, but that’s now the level of expectation displayed by so many people that I believe they will die of their own stupidity rather than a medical condition.

Orange Order Supporters to Vote For “Pro-IRA” Corbyn Party

The Silent Majority

In the 2010 and 2015 Westminster elections the Tories in Airdrie consistently polled around 7 or 8% of the vote, somewhere in the region of 3,200 votes. If there was one thing that Ruth Davidson did well, it was to identify her market. Right wing, traditionalist, pro-military British Nationalists. Step forward the Orange Order.  ‘Colonel’ Davidson appealed to them and motivated them to rally to the Tories, a move which saw the Tory vote in Airdrie almost treble in 2017 and saw their candidate take almost 9,000 votes. So successful was this tactic that it took voters from the Labour Party and saw Neil Gray of the SNP take the seat with a majority of only 195. It did not go unnoticed among them that had they stayed with Labour they would have unseated the SNP candidate. They haven’t had long to wait and that lesson is still fresh in their memory.

Current BritNat Tactical Voting Guide for Airdrie

Well organised and secretive with an extensive network of contacts, the above image and others like it are now being aggressively shared on social media and the Loyalists are being asked to be a bit less, well, loyal. It’s being accompanied by sentiment such as “hold your nose and vote Labour” because having spent years convincing themselves that Jeremy Corbyn is an IRA supported they now find themselves having to back him to oust the SNP. If successful it could see potentially thousands of votes switch from the Tories to Labour and could hand the seat to them, and is likely to be successfil given that the head of the Orange Order in Scotland is a Labour councillor in Airdrie.

Neil Gray’s only chance of retaining the seat now lies in the hands of the people who he failed to motivate last time, almost 10,000 voters who simply dropped away over a period of two years for reasons unknown. Outspent and outgunned by Labour last time in terms of manpower, things have not improved greatly and the restrictive nature of the campaign will not help. At present he has failed to meet his very low crowdfunding target which does not bode well as this campaign is all about leafleting and social media advertising. Without activists parties rely on paid for mailshots delivered by Royal Mail, not a problem to dark money Tories and Union funded Labour, but a real issue to an MP who can draw on neither of those. As an MP with a significant salary you might think that a fair chunk of that would be tucked away for such occasions. All will be revealed after the election, but in all likelihood Labour will again come out on top of the spending chart, followed by the SNP, with the Tories third and Lib-Dems and Greens at the coo’s tail. With the Lib-Dems spending a massive £88 last time (yes, really- £88!) the Greens should manage to outspend them at least, even though both are likely to lose their deposits.

Do Scots Understand How Devolution Works?

Airdrie & Coatbridge Advertiser, 20/11/19

I feel I must reply to Kenneth MacKintosh’s letter in this weeks Advertiser as it contains some basic errors and inaccuracies, so much so that it really makes me wonder how it even got published. Who needs fake news when you have fake views.

Mr MacKintosh said that the Labour Party must fight this election on our health service and education. It is disappointing to still be seeing that people do not seem to understand the different levels of government which we have in Scotland, and what responsibilities each one has. Both health and education are devolved and come under the auspices of our parliament in Holyrood, and the correct time to debate them will be at the Holyrood elections in 2021. This is a Westminster election, and due to devolution and the Tory “English Votes for English Laws” legislation the parties in Scotland should be concentrating on those areas in which they are allowed a say in at Westminster; this would cover such issues as immigration, foreign policy, employment law, defence and the constitution.

Too many of the Labour/Tory/Lib-Dem politicians are happy talking about health, education, etc because this mirrors what their main parties are talking about and will be in line with what will appear in the main UK news broadcasts. For example, if London Labour is discussing transport then the Scottish branch of the party will do likewise, even though it’s a Holyrood issue and their policies aren’t applicable in Scotland. This can only happen due to the public’s own misunderstanding of our politics, but it’s a misunderstanding all parties are happy to exploit, and you must ask what they stand to gain by doing that.

Finally Mr MacKintosh notes that the Scottish Government underspent its budget last year. This has happened every year since the creation of our parliament and is necessary as Scotland runs a “pocket-money parliament” and is not permitted to build up a deficit. Everything has to be accounted for and our country cannot go over. Were the Scottish Government to spend its entire budget and then experience an unforeseen event which required a large amount of funding they would be forced to go cap in hand to London to be bailed out. Given that many English voters already view us as spongers who live off their generosity it’s unlikely that this would be popular. Prior to 2007 the Labour Party were in the habit of returning the underspend to London, but since they lost power that money has been carried forward to future years so it isn’t lost completely and can then be spent the next year. Of course the Britnats label this as a “slush fund”.

It would of course be far easier if we simply removed the most wasteful and remote of these levels of government; to give Scots a parliament which controlled its own economy and could legislate, borrow and build a better country without having to ask permission from our neighbours first. Then our success or failure would be our own, with no need to “blame” someone else as Mr MacKintosh puts it. But that would mean taking some responsibility for our own actions, wouldn’t it?

Airdrie and Shotts- Labour Gain?

All aboard!

It’s early days yet and perhaps I’m jumping the gun a little, but there is currently no Tory candidate for Airdrie & Shotts. In the 2015 election Neil Gray romped home when the independence vote coalesced around the SNP to kick out Pamela Nash who has since gone one to take over as the Chief Executive of British Nationalist extremist organisation Scotland in Union. Helen McFarlane of Labour almost came close to making Gray a one term wonder reducing his majority from around 10,000 to a mere 196. Or did she?

In the 2017 election the SNP famously campaigned while trying not to say i*******e and shed votes across Scotland. Turnout in Airdrie & Shotts was down by around 7% with many SNP voters simply not turning out. The Labour vote dropped and the Tory vote rose, with many in the area enthused by the Ruth Davidson Party for Ruth Davidson’s North Britain and unwilling to vote for the allegedly “pro-IRA” Jeremy Corbyn.

It would be not only overly simplistic but indeed extremely silly to assume that the voters who failed to turn out for the SNP somehow jumped to the Tories. I think many Scot’s voted for the SNP out of a sense of deep personal shame at their No vote in 2014 and were unlikely to jump ship. The real realignment in the vote was within the British Nationalist bloc. Ruth Davidson at least realised that the Tories, Labour and the Lib-Dems were all fishing in the same pot for a share of the 55% and falling who backed the UK, and this led to many working class people turning a blind eye to their previous behaviour and rallying to the fleg. The Conservatives gain was probably what led to Neil Gray clinging on.

Unionist guide to voting 2019

With the Tories and Labour in a loose coalition in North Lanarkshire could it be that they have realised that they will have to work together again to remove the seat from the SNP? With no  Lib Dem candidate announced and no Tory candidate either, are they giving Labour a clear run at the seat? Between that and the Greens perhaps siphoning off vital votes there’s every possibility that the seat will go from SNP back to Labour, and the SNP have only themselves to blame. Their failure nationally to campaign on independence cost them dearly, and locally the party shed members hand over fist. They made no attempt to enthuse new members, to train them and to turn them from voters and supporters to activists and agitators. Recently attempts have been made in North Lanarkshire to drain the SNP swamp but it may be too little, too late. The lack of activists will tell dearly and Labour will not struggle on that score, with trade union backing courtesy of Leonard and McFarlane, and more reinforcements in the north of England available a short bus ride away. The clock is ticking, and on current form Neil Gray will not see the inside of Westminster again.

Two Jobs Gaffney and the Monklands Hospital

I was amused to read that Hugh Gaffney MP is now demanding that the present Monklands Hospital site be included in the evaluation process for the hospital upgrade. This will be the same Hugh Gaffney who stated in June last year that he was “delighted” that Gartcosh had been shortlisted, and highlighted the attributes of the Gartcosh site, one of which included cycle routes, a grreat comfort to those who would rather avoid the circuitous train ride to Glasgow and back. Mr Gaffney has held his two jobs for a while now but surely he cannot also hold two diametrically opposing views at the same time, although that is a trait being displayed more and more by the Labour Party; for and against Brexit. For and against nuclear weapons. For and against a new hospital.

Mr Gaffney is not alone in trying to occupy two positions at once. Richard Leonard also petitioned to keep the hospital on its present site and later, to hedge his bets, was photographed with a sign demanding that the health board keep the hospital in the “Monklands area”.
Labour appear to have more positions on this issue than a Rubik’s cube, and are unable to hold one position on it for any length of time. The cynic in me might think that they are merely trying to find a position contrary to that of the SNP (also to be to keep the Monklands in the Monklands) and are churning out petitions simply to ensure they remain in the papers and at the end of the process may inadvertantly have backed the winning site and can claim victory. Or defeat, depending on their mood at the time. Groucho Marx famously said “those are my principles. If you don’t like them, I have others”. In respect of the Labour Party on the issue of Monklands Hospital, I can think of nothing more apt.

As a final point, with all this arguing and flip-flopping going on no one seems to be asking the most important question: whatever the outcome, wherever it may be built, is the funding to build it available? If not then all the arguments about where it should be are utterly pointless.

/ /irdrie & Coatbridge Advertiser, 07/08/19

 

Rail Fare Rises

Letter published in The National, 07/01/18

Last Wednesday I was handed a leaflet by a Labour Party activist at Edinburgh Waverly Station entitled “the Great SNP Train Robbery: An SNP Party Production starring Humza Yousaf- Nicola Sturgeon”. The leaflet stated that:

1. Rail fares rise again in 2018
2. Since 2012 rail fares up by 12%
3. Fares rising faster than wages
4. The SNP are failing to stand up for millions of passengers

While number 1 is undoubtedly true, there’s no facts to back up point 2 or 3. Furthermore it’s my understanding that although rail franchising is devolved in Scotland, ticket pricing is not, and rises in fares are set by the UK government, not Holyrood.

The leaflet being handed out by the Labour Party was clearly printed in advance to tie in with the implementation of the annual fare changes and tied in with similar sentiment printed in columns by Labour members such as Tom Harris. Richard Leonard has been in the past accused of confusing the responsibilities of the two parliaments, and this is another example of the grey man of Scottish politics operating in the grey areas between London and Edinburgh.

Their propaganda fails to stand up to scrutiny, indeed when I pressed the Labour Party activist who gave me the leaflet on the accuracy of the leaflet he tried to back it by reaching for proof, and produced from his bag a crushed copy of the free Metro newspaper!

Isn’t it time that the Scottish Government raised awareness of who exactly is responsible for what on our rail network? Perhaps if they did Labou could finally be shunted off into a sidings somewhere.