Having resigned ourselves to a discontented winter with on-street independence campaigning winding down for the Christmas and New Year, I was surprised to see that The National was to host its own independence rally in Glasgow on the 2nd November. I was also surprised to see that First Minister Nicola Sturgeon would be in attendance – her first actual independence rally since 2014! Even “old manky jaiket” Alistair McConnachie has attended more independence marches than that! I was also surprised to see that there will still be Orange marches in November. You learn something new every day I suppose.
So why have a rally now? On the Andrew Marr show in mid October the SNP leader said that she would be asking for a Section 30 order “by the end of this month”. That means that many of us will be expecting her to have announced categorically that such a request has officially been made. She may be given a few days leeway as it may be that she wants to make that big announcement at the rally itself. That being the case though, I’d expect it to be a cross party presentation. I’d expect the Greens on board at the very least, but it appears that isn’t the case, and there are already grumblings from them on that regard. This begs the question: if not a launch of a new Yes movement then what?
I suspect that next week’s rally will see a mix of pro-independence messages but no definitive “this is it” moment, and will be focused primarily on the expected forthcoming election campaign. Much as we all recognise that the SNP are the main driving force in the independence movement, the SNP themselves often fail to recognise their place in the movement. If the wide cross section of the independence movement congregates on Glasgow expecting the whistle to be sounded on Indyref2 and find that they are only gathered there for an SNP election launch then a lot of goodwill will be lost. With their single minded determination not to pursue independence through manifesto, they have already tried the patience of a sizeable chunk of the movement. If they don’t wan’t some support to take wings then next Saturday will be critical. Nicola Sturgeon must get it right, as another “Grand Old Duke of York” moment would be one too many.