Monthly Archives: September 2019
Plan B. Or The Lack Of.
A few days ago I went to hear the SNP’s Ian Blackford and Mhairi Black speaking in Edinburgh in a public Q&A. They were asked a very important question which one audience member then asked again as he felt their answer had been unsatisfactory.
“If Westminster continually refuses to grant a Section 30 order, what then?”
Both Mr Blackford and Ms Black were at great pains to say that an independence referendum legislated for by agreement with Westminster was the “gold standard” and that was what they were aiming for, no ifs, no buts. In other words, no other route will be contemplated. There will be no consideration of a Plan B.
Now, let’s be honest. Section 30 permission was previously granted by David Cameron because he thought they would win, much like the Brexit referendum. This time they won’t be so agreeable. UDI is simply not an option from the get go. So is there another way? For that we need to take our lead from the Labour Party…
Labour’s plan to “stop” Brexit is not via another referendum but via the general election ballot box. Labour have been agitating for the last two years to have a general election where they can put forward their plan for Brexit (and let’s not forget they are commited to Brexit) and hope to take it forward if they win a majority. So, no second referendum, just a mandate gained by putting their manifesto to the people. Win the election, implement the mandate. Sounds simple? It is.
In a Scottish context, pre 1999 that was how it was expected that Scotland would gain its independence. The SNP, campaigning for independence in their manifesto, only had to win a majority of seats in a Westminster election to win the prize. With a focus on referendums that route has been abandoned. When people like Angus MacNeill MSP point to the old road map, critics hastily scribble “here be dragons” on it and deflect attention away from it. But why would they? It’s perfectly sound method of achieving independence. Make it explicit in the manifesto, stand on that manifesto, and win that election. Just like Labour propose with Brexit.
What have they to lose? If they win, they win the ultimate prize. If they lose, so what? As Mr Blackford said in Edinburgh, the SNP are utterly derided at Westminster. They are ignored at Westminster. They are outvoted at Westminster by the collective seats of the city of London alone. So, go for it. Be bold for once.
For me, the problem with the SNP is its habit of hedging its bets. Gaining seats and maintaining a profile, even an ineffective one is the current modus operandi. Which is why everything is aimed at the floating voter, about gradualism at a glacial pace. The problem with glaciers is that at some point they begin to retreat, and there comes a point when you must commit full on if you want to win big.
The SNP’s policy of softly, softly, catchee monkee is winning, slowly, slowly. Clearly they believe that independence can be gaining by demonstrating that Scotland can do things differently and effectively. That’s a slow process and one which to be honest needs accelerated. The SNP need to remember that the greatest catalyst to change is anger. Nothing moves people more than their rage at injustices. Nothing gets people off their backsides quicker than a sense that someone is doing them over. So why aren’t people RAGING that they are in a UK which is taking them outside Europe, where the UK is looking to work ordinary people to death rather than pay them pensions? While London takes to the streets, Scotland barely whimpers. If the SNP are serious about delivering Scotland from a future tied to the mad empirical dreams of Little Englanders then it has to take the gloves off and start rabble rousing, because playing by someone else’s rules just won’t deliver.