Where Now for the Scottish Branch of the Labour Party?

In the lead up to the 2014 referendum many Scottish Labour figures came out with the line that they had as much in common with the workers of Durham or Darlington as they did with the workers in Dundee or Dunfermline. It’s a much repeated trope symbolising the idea that their support for the union was based not on national lines but on class lines; a shared ethos of socialist communities working together towards a common goal, sharing common experiences against a common foe: uncaring, greedy, grasping Tories. In the last few years though it’s become apparent that Brexit has made England and Wales rethink their priorities, and it’s clear that while Scottish Labour have remained loyal to their southern counterparts, the people of Durham and Darlington have decided that their allegiance is no longer with Labour but with the Tories. Having spent all those years holding a candle for England’s working class, Scottish Labour are now left alone in the dark holding a charred stub with no idea how to get out of the darkness.

Pleas from some factions within the party that they must soften their stance on independence are met with roars of disapproval from the most hardcore British Nationalists in their ranks, some of whom would happily see Holyrood closed down than see the SNP succeed in any aspect. This embittered group are still raging over Labour’s loss of it’s North British fiefdom in 2007; they burn with hatred over their inability to take back control of what they view as rightfully theirs: control of every aspect of Scottish life from community council to Westminster and every carriage of the gravy train which snaked between them all. These are a people beyond our reach, and we would be foolish to expend our energies trying to win them over. But the Labour Party is more than this small but vocal group. We in the independence movement must reach out to are those who can see the bigger prize; who want a publicly owned health service, joined up public transport designed with users in mind, not shareholders; people who want an education system to be proud of, who want to get on with building a better Scotland and who are open to that being built by a Labour government in an independent Scotland.

How do we do that though? By exhorting them to change sides, to switch to the SNP? That would be unpalatable to many. To build a new party? That might be option but would mean a complete loss of structure and influence and would put them in competition with the remnants of British Labour. Instead we must encourage them to speak up within the Labour Party and demonstrate that they want to cut their ties with London, stand on their own two feet and change the direction of their party from anti to pro independence. This means ridding the party of those who find Scotland run by a UK Tory government infinitely preferable to a Scotland run independently by Labour. Because those people aren’t socialists, not really. Those are people with no vision and no ambition. If they had any of those characteristics they would seize the chance to protect Scotland and build it into a example which their counterparts in England could point to as evidence that their policies can work. Instead they spend their time opposing everything done by the SNP to prove that those policies don’t work, even what it is exactly what they would do if they had power.

This week their branch leader Richard Leonard has said that his party will be having a swift, evidence based review of where Labour went wrong, but he has already come to the conclusion that their stance on independence is the correct one. This sounds to me like Mr Leonard has already made up his mind prior to hearing the evidence which renders his consultation, like him, pointless. The rot clearly starts at the top and if Labour is to be encouraged to steer their ship towards independence then a change of captain is obviously needed, and only mutiny in the ranks will bring this about. Should they maintain this course they will undoubtedly founder on the rocks, and time will tell if they heed the warnings or head full sail towards their own destruction.

Airdrie and Shotts Result 2019- The Outcome

From Sky NewsThe night of the 12th December into the 13th was a long and eventful one. As I was following the Scottish coverage I missed just how many big names went in our southern neighbours electoral battlefields. It was a night of big surprises, but in other ways delivered just what I expected.

What I expected was a Tory majority and that was exactly what the outcome was. Boris Johnson’s “Get Brexit Done” message was simple and repetitive and no attention was paid by many to the devil in the detail.

Corbynism is now dead and gone and we can “look forward” to another two or three Conservative governments before we get any kind of reprieve. Anyone who still believes that another Labour government is just round the corner really does need their head examined.

The SNP did exceptionally well in Scotland, better than I had expected to be honest. I was delighted to see Jo Swinson gone, and it will be interesting to see how much money the Lib-Dems threw at that seat.

Locally the SNP also did better than I expected. In Coatbridge Hugh “Two-Jobs” Gaffney became merely Hugh Gaffney as Stevie Bonnar took the seat back for the SNP, despite the ongoing infighting in the branch. In Airdrie the SNP’s Neil Gray saw off the challenge of Helen McFarlane of the Labour Party, and did so comfortably. Early in the campaign I had stated that the SNP lost around 10,00 votes between 2015-2017 and this was partially due to their failure to motivate those who had previously supported them to get out and vote.  That’s not a mistake that was repeated this time, with Nicola Sturgeon making a number of high profile references to Indyref 2020. This wasn’t really repeated in local leafleting though and I thought this may be a weakness. It wasn’t perceived as such.

There was also much effort on social media at organising and directing tactical voting. Former Labour MP and now Scotland in Union Chief Executive Pamela Nash was the main proponent of this with her Tactical Voting Advisor being used to advise British Nationalists which way to vote. Such was the volume of chatter that I saw it as likely that if the SNP failed to enthuse it’s lapsed support then the Labour Party would be the beneficiary of those who had stated they were going to “hold their nose and vote Labour (in reference to Jeremy Corbyn’s alleged IRA support).  So what happened?

Firstly, let’s look at turnout. In 2017 Airdrie and Shotts had 64,146 registered voters. In 2019 that had DROPPED to 64,008! That’s not much, but you would expect the registered electorate to rise, not fall. In the great scheme of things it’s not much, but then again it’s not far off Neil Gray’s majority in 2017. Of those registered 39,772 voted in 2019, up on 2017’s 38,002. So, with an extra 1770 voters turning out, how were those votes carved up?

The SNP increased their vote by 3,638.

Labour lost 1,368 votes overall.

The Tories lost 1,802 votes.

The Lib-Dems increased their vote by 617.

The Greens took 685 votes (didn’t stand previously).

Given that it’s unlikely that voters would switch from pro-Indy/Anti-Brexit SNP to anti-Indy/anti-Brexit Lib-Dems, we might see much of the Lib-Dem increase coming from Labour/Tory voters who were against Brexit.

We can probably put much of the remaining Tory loss down to tactical voting for Labour, and this could mean around 1,500 votes went to what they viewed rightly as the SNP’s main challenger.

Which begs the question: what happened to the Labour vote? If we assume that around 1,500 votes were lent by the Tories, then Labour retained around 11,200 votes from 2015, dropping almost 2,900 votes somewhere along the way.  Were those voters simply not energised by Jeremy Corbyn this time round? Did they stay at home and not bother voting at all? Or did they switch to the SNP and Greens? Those are questions which Labour will no doubt be asking, but which the SNP must also ask too. Because they need to know whether their rise in this election came from lapsed supporters or people who switched from their constitutional opponents, and if it’s the latter, have they changed their mind on the constitutional question?

As for Labour, they need to ask the same question and decide where their future lies. At the head of the party is a wounded leadership still resolved to backing the union, but how much of the remaining rank and file are now open to independence?

And what of my predictions? I saw the British Nationalist tactical voting coming and had turnout followed similar lines at 2017 Labour would have comfortably taken the seat. What I didn’t see was the total collapse of the Labour vote which rendered the tactical voting null and void. Time will tell whether they rebuild to former levels or not. I wouldn’t put money on it though.

Misleading Scotland – Dodgy Bar Charts and Alternative Facts

The last election leaflet has now been delivered and there have been some whoppers. At this election across the UK it has been reported that there have been some rather dodgy bar graphs used in the electoral material which take the statistics from the previous elections and present them as, well, something else entirely. So how have we fared in Airdrie & Shotts?

Here’s the Airdrie & Shotts result from 2017.

The SNP took 37.6% of the vote, followed closely by Labour on 37.1%. The Tories increased their vote, but still trailed in around 5,000 votes behind on 23.4%, while the Lib-Dems lost their deposit with a mere 2.1% of votes cast. In the 2019 leaflets issued by all parties both the SNP and Labour decided not to use bar charts. From the SNP’s point of view that’s understandable as such a graphic would show how close they were to being unseated, and might encourage tactical voting against them. As challengers it’s therefore strange that Labour failed to do so, as it would have showed them as strongly placed and at the same time revealed the claims made by the Tories and Lib-Dems as misleading. How so? Here’s how…

Lorraine Nolan Leaflet

The Conservative candidate presented a graph showing them romping ahead of Labour and would indicate to the casual reader that they were in pole position to challenge the SNP. One problem: the graph showed the rise in their vote share, not their actual vote share, and would need around a 70% rise to beat the SNP! That’s right. Seventy. Seven Zero. Top marks for audacity, nil points for accuracy.

William “the ghost” Crossman.

Not to be outdone the Lib Dem candidate William Crossman, who appears to have either been photoshopped onto his leaflet or popped off the train at Airdrie for a selfie and then jumped on the first train back out (has anyone ever seen him?) made the claim that the Lib-Dems are “challenging the SNP across much of Scotland”. By much he means some and that certainly isn’t in Airdrie. In his chart he’s decided to use the results of the 2019 European Election to show how the Lib-Dems increased their vote by almost 7%, which if replicated in this election could see the Lib-Dems increase their vote share from 2.1% to 2.2 and a bit %. Haud me back!

In but a few short hours we’ll see who comes out tops, but if there are awards for brass neck and bullshit the Tories and Lib-Dems would be the clear winners. Congratulations!

For comparison I uploaded all the 2019 electoral material I received to the site electionleaflets.org and you can view them all HERE.

Monklands Hospital Replacement Submission

The selection process which had previously seen Gartcosh selected as the site for the replacement of Monklands Hospital was reopened by Health Secretary Jeanne Freeman and new suggestions were sought after complaints were made about the initial process.

It seemed clear from the outset that Gartcosh was the preferred option of North Lanarkshire Health Board, and I felt that the “consultation” which took place was designed to sell this option to the public rather than give them any real say in the process.

The re-run process closes on 13th December and submissions can be made HERE.

As far as I am aware there are currently three potential sites in the running: Gartcosh, Glenmavis, and Faskine. The current site has been excluded from the process.

I submitted the following text to the Monklands Replacement Project Team today and providing it meets all the criteria (which I believe it does) should be included for consideration. It’s an area I’m familiar with and I’ve spent many hours walking and climbing there, however it is already earmarked for the East Airdrie Link road, and development on part of this site would at least protect greenbelt elsewhere.

The area which is referred to in the submission is marked with a thick blue border/red/white dots.

My proposal for a suitable site for a new build hospital would be the land on the north side of the A89 between Clarkston and Plains, opposite the old St Philips School complex (ML6 7JE), contained in OS grid NS76 66. The site is bounded to the south by the main A89. To the west by the B8058, to the north by Airdriehill Road and abandoned quarry workings, and to the east by the village of Plains.
Within the area described are the remains of Burnhead Farm and Burnhead Quarry. The area is traversed by Core Path 178 (also known as Right of Way SM8) and Right of Way SM9. The area is used for grazing by cattle and has two dwellings on the boundary of the described area at the extreme north –eastern corner at the junction of Meadowhead Road and Ballochney Road.

The area described exceeds the required 40 acres, and the area is surrounded by developed land or land with permissions granted for development. It has good access from the A89 and is immediately adjacent to the route of the East Airdrie Link Road which will give exceptional connectivity from across the catchment area. Drumgelloch railway station is located 0.9km away by foot, which compares well with the distance from Coatdyke railway station to the current Monklands Hospital (0.7km). The proposed site is 3.7 km east of the existing Monklands Hospital and would not have a detrimental impact on adjoining NHS areas, and would maintain the hospitals direct link with the town of Airdrie while protecting valuable greenbelt land to the south of Airdrie.

How Low Can They Go?

I really don’t think I could feel any more contempt than I do with anyone making political capital from the deaths of children in the QEU Hospital. The idea of these people rubbing their hands with glee at the news of a child’s death sickens me to the core; and I find it concerning that there is a mole inside the hospital whose first priority appears not to be to the patients, or the families, but the Labour Party. This chain runs like a sewer from the mole to the Labour Party and then onwards to their friends in the print media and the BBC; and no matter how tenuous the link, from there the stories filter into every home and every workplace as one voice, with one message: get the Health Minister. This message is then seized upon by their poisonous Twitterati who add their tuppenceworth before sharing their epidemic of hate.

It’s a tactic which has repeated itself over and over in Scotland since the SNP swept Labour from its fiefdom here, yet it is not a pattern which is repeated in England, either by the parties or the media. It is a truly Scottish phenomenon, but it is one which many of us haven’t succumbed to. The idea that the removal of the current Health Minister will improve things doesn’t add up, especially when the reasons for calling for her head cannot be directly laid at her door. If any deaths were as a direct result of an instruction given by the Minister then I’d have no argument with that line of attack. I’ve had issues with hospitals myself, where I’ve had to raise complaints, but I can clearly see where responsibility lies and these have mainly been with local procedures or with members of staff themselves. Unless I was extraordinarily twisted there is no way I could lay the blame for the bad attitude of an individual within the system at the door of the Health Minister. Yet this is the situation Scotland now finds itself in and a simple comparison with news output, media coverage and political posturing sees none of the same patterns occurring in England, despite there being no shortage of troubling stories emanating from their NHS.

Unfortunately I see no end in sight to this cycle of coverage in Scotland, which is ultimately eroding confidence in our entire health service. Here in Airdrie there is a consultation taking place about the replacement for the Monklands Hospital, and I heard one elderly gentleman comment that “perhaps they will learn to build a hospital where people don’t die”. There isn’t a hospital in the world where that happens, but that’s now the level of expectation displayed by so many people that I believe they will die of their own stupidity rather than a medical condition.