The Mindlessness of “Both Votes SNP”

Letter to “The National, 29/04/21

Repeat without thinking…

Both Votes SNP… Both Votes SNP…

I read Tom Tracey’s letter in today’s National regarding the SNP’s record on education and as a set of statistics I’m sure it appears impressive. However, the true measure of education is not mindless repetition of numbers but a display that one has taken that information in, assessed it and that you can make practical application of that data. Which is why I had to shake my head in despair when I saw that Mr Tracey concluded his interesting list with the much-derided cry of “BOTH VOTES SNP”. One thing I have learned through my political education is that both votes SNP, while easy on the ear and simple to trot out to the unthinking, makes no practical sense across much of Scotland, including Greenock where Mr Tracey lives. In 2016 in that region, the SNP took 135,827 list votes, a whopping 42.2% of the list votes, and yet it returned a grand total of ZERO MSPs on the list. For the SNP to have gained the final seat on the list, squeezing out the Greens, they would have required an additional 19,144 votes – more than the total of all their West Scotland constituency candidates votes combined! Surely Mr Tracey can see that all those wasted votes were for nothing? In fact, they would have been as well voting Labour or Tory, for that is what their SNP2 vote got them, and at least then they might have had a say over which unionists were going to be elected to work against Scotland in our parliament.Sadly, many SNP die-hards are now utterly welded to the comfort blanket of both votes SNP, but thankfully many are seeing the reality of the situation and are choosing to cast their list vote for another pro-independence party. In fact what I am seeing locally is that some of the SNP’s most dedicated and long serving activists are now switching to the Alba Party and are actively out there chapping on doors to ensure that the representatives of parties working actively against Scotland are diluted and that the parties working for Scotland are strengthened, giving a breadth and depth of support for independence previously unseen in Holyrood, while holding the SNP’s feet to the fire in regard to their commitment to independence which has been somewhat lukewarm over the course of the last parliament. If there is one lesson we should all be able to agree on, it is that the unionists will be motivated to get out and vote (or will have already done so by post) and that it is imperative that we turn up and cast our votes and that we encourage others to do so, particularly younger voters who are by and large more disposed towards independence, but less likely to actually cast their ballot. We cannot assume that other people’s votes will carry the day. Otherwise we run the risk of letting our parliament and our chances of independence any time soon slip from our grasp. Here endeth the lesson.

Wee Ginger Dug and the Cyber, er, Albanats

Letter to The National: 07/04/21

I was saddened to see that Paul Kavanagh has retreated from social media for the time being due to abuse he claims to have received through his blog. Unfortunately we are not party to seeing this and must take him at his word, but I was disappointed in the manner in which he departed where he threw a hand-grenade into the room as he went, laying the blame for the current level of toxicity at supporters of the Alba Party.

I’ve just re-read one of his articles from 2014 where he pointed to the unionist media constantly smearing the Yes side as “cybernats”, with their repeated insinuation that somehow all online abuse emanated entirely from independence supporters, while we all knew fine well that was not the case. Online abuse by British Nationalists in Scotland was horrendous, often accompanied with violent or sectarian undertones, and was well documented at the time by many. We know that both sides had their fair share of nasty individuals, and to claim othwise is to deny reality. Both sides also undoubtedly were represented by trolls posing as supporters of the other side, posting inflammatory or abusive content to then discredit the opposition.

So to see Paul throw a scattergun accusation in the direction of supporters of the Alba Party was a great disappointment, bearing in mind his experience of the 2014 referendum and the fact that many of these good people have contributed financially to him in recent times when he has needed support. It cannot have escaped his attention that there is a sustained campaign of vile abuse being aimed at Alex Salmond, the Alba Party and their supporters, which by and large is emanating from hardline SNP supporters who, like Paul, cannot countenance the idea that SNP 1&2 is perhaps not the only way.

In one recent blog Paul pointed out what he believes to be the dangers of “splitting the vote” and noted that the unionist side could tactically vote for Anas Sarwar to oust Nicola Sturgeon, and that the SNP would therefore be reliant on winning list seats to keep her in place. What might well cost Nicola Sturgeon her place in the parliament is in fact her own hubris; as by introducing a policy of placing a disabled/BAME candidate at the top of each list her defeat would hand her place in parliament to Roza Salih and Ms Sturgeon would then be reliant or another one or more constituency seats being lost to then generate another list seat to save her place. By then though the damage would be done and she would be a lame duck leader, crawling in on the list like Douglas Ross is attempting to do.

So the electoral campaign by the Alba Party which is encouraging people to vote SNP 1 and Alba 2 might well encourage those who had lost faith in the SNP in that area to get out and gift the SNP a constituency vote they might otherwise not have cast, in the process saving Nicola Sturgeon from a tactical mistake which could well deliver a humiliating personal electoral defeat.

At the moment there is a large amount of animosity swilling around the independence movement, and yesterday’s anniversary of the Declaration of Arbroath should be a reminder to all sides that we have a common foe, and for now at least a truce needs to be called. The demonisation of individuals within the independence movement based on their perceived support for Alex or Nicola, Wee Ginger Dug or Wings, SNP or Alba must stop. By all means disagree, but lets do so while keeping in mind that ultimately, we are all on the same side, working for the same aim: not for personal riches, glory or honour, but our nation’s independence. 

Vote Smart

Letter to The National, 05/04/21

The National, 03/04/21

I read Mhairi Black’s beginners guide to the D’Hondt voting system and was disappointed to see her present an oversimplified and frankly dishonest explanation which was framed merely to support the SNP 1&2 strategy and nothing else. Her explanation was based gaining one list seat in a system which was completely unrepresentative of how D’Hondt is used in a Holyrood scenario,  where each list has a total of 7 seats available.

She also again paints the picture that voting tactically for another pro-independence party is somehow trying to “game the system”, stating that you should vote for the party which represents your views. For many in the independence movement their sole reason for voting SNP is for independence, and they “hold their noses” and vote SNP in the face of other policies they patently disagree with. Ms Black decries lending your second vote elsewhere, not realising that many are lending the SNP their first vote in the first place!

She pointed to the SNP’s win under Alex Salmond in 2011 which beat the system to deliver a majority, and ascribes the 2016 loss of seats as being due to losing list votes, something which is patently not the case. There were a number of factors at play here, especially the fact Ruth Davidson had gone all out to capture the split British Nationalist vote and in some areas more than doubled the Tory vote. Indeed one might say that Davidson won her constituency from the SNP due to the Greens splitting the constituency vote there – not the list.

In Central Scotland, where I live, the SNP took all the constituency seats and had 129,082 list votes, which saw them take no list seats. For them to have taken even one list seat would have required finding an extra 16,288 votes; around 3,000 more voters than actually voted for them in the constituencies. By contrast had less than 2000 SNP voters lent the Greens a list vote then they would have gained one MSP at the expense of the Tories. 

Similarly in Glasgow, the SNP took 111,101 list votes for a nil return of seats and would have required an astounding 36,579 votes to prise even one seat from the unionist rivals. yet had just over 6,000 SNP supporters switched votes on the list the Greens may have again taken a seat at the expense of the Tories.

In Fife the SNP required a massive 40,531 extra votes for one seat, in the North East 34,624, yet on the Lothian list they only required an extra 2,393 votes (which would have saw them gain a seat at the expense of the Greens). I could go on, but you get the picture.

This is a complex issue which requires us as independence supporters to put in the hours and do our homework. To blindly follow a broad brush strategy of “give us all your votes” is to ask us to disregard the evidence which is before our very eyes. Far more sensible would be a message of “Vote Smart” by using your judgement and your local knowledge and experience to see whether you can use your list vote tactically to benefit a pro-independence party. In years gone by this was fairly straightforward as the Greens were the only alternative receptacle for list votes, however that is now more complicated as there is a choice of the Greens or the Alba Party, and a decision on which of those to vote for might be made on the basis of policy or on the basis of your assessment of which one would be most likely to win.

In the case of either party, the threshold for them to gain a list seat is relatively modest, something which is easily achievable if the SNP don’t campaign to hoard votes which will ultimately be written off. An easing off on the SNP 1&2 rhetoric would perhaps encourage some people to look afresh at our voting system and see how it works, as from what I am seeing on social media, many people’s response to any debate on the issue is to merely confirm that they have already closed their mind off to the topic, and those responses are usually accompanied by slanderous comment and memes aimed at Alex Salmond, the likes of which I would formerly have expected to find in the depths of the most bitter corners of unionist social media.

There’s something very Scottish about watching two branches of the same church tear themselves apart over whose method of worship is the right one, and I suggest that memebers of certain factions which make up the formerly broad church of the Yes movement remember what it was that made us so strong in 2014, and retrain their fire on the enemies of independence, rather than firing on their own lines. If we do not, then there will only be one winner in all of this and that is Westminster and I am certain that is an outcome which none of us find acceptable. On 6th May whether you vote smart or vote through blind loyalty, one thing matters above all – just get out and vote, and with luck we’ll all get a positive result for Scotland when the ballot box closes.