Letter to The National: 24th April 2016
We are not even two years down the line from Indyref and in that time while the SNP have managed to attract a large and vocal contingent of the Yes vote, as well as many people who have come over to support the SNP possibly out of a sense of shame at their No vote, especially after seeing what it delivered; EVEL and the pig in a poke of the Scotland Bill. But the main concerns which failed to convince the floating No voter remain. Competent and effective government is simply not enough to convince them.
The SNP have spent the time since September 2014 focussing on consolidating their position in government, some would say to the detriment of the independence campaign as a whole. This is set to continue until after the council elections in 2017, and I see no major move towards a referendum before that date, regardless of the EU referendum result. The SNP manifesto which launched last week cited the UK voting to leave the EU as a possible trigger to a new referendum on Scottish independence. It seems to me that many, many Scots are pinning their hopes on this happening, however should this happen I believe however that it is no guarantee that a referendum could be won. Imagine if Scots overwhelmingly vote Remain, while RUK votes Leave and this is used as reason to trigger a referendum. Should Scots subsequently vote No we would be in the most bizarre limbo, where the only possible interpretation of that result would be that we wish to be in the EU with the UK, or out with the UK, but not independent within the EU! We cannot be bounced from one extreme to the other, and I believe that a Scottish Remain vote should not be viewed as a possible referendum trigger, but as a de facto referendum vote, and that the Scottish Government should view this as such. If we vote Remain and the UK votes Leave then declare our independence. No Indyref 2 please, just independence.